Make smarter picks
Use these frequency stats to guide your 24-pick prediction. Every night is different - this is your edge.
Real tour data
How often Noah has actually played each song — set-anchors at the top, deep cuts at the bottom. Sourced from real setlists, not guesses. Most-played songs are worth the fewest points in the game; the deep cuts at the bottom are where the wildcard swings happen.
The Great Divide Tour, 2026 — the same recorded headline shows the scoring model learns from (festival sets like Bonnaroo aren't counted). Updates as more setlists are added.
No shows recorded in this window yet.
Stick Season & We'll All Be Here Forever tours, 2023–24 — the frozen setlist.fm baseline. This is the long-run picture of his live staples.
The Great Divide - April 2026
The Great Divide dropped April 24, 2026 - debuting #1 in the US and UK. This tour is built around the new album. Expect 10–12 songs from The Great Divide every night, with Stick Season favorites filling the rest.
Deep Cut Strategy
Rare and unplayed songs are worth the most points — a deep cut can be worth 8x what a nightly staple scores. The unreleased tracks (Pain Is Cold Water, Shape of My Shadow, Pain Eater) are exactly the wildcards this game was built for. Almost nobody picks them. If one hits, it's a leaderboard swing.
Projected rotation
Editorial estimates of how the new album slots into the live set — a forecast, not counted plays. For confirmed frequencies, see Most-Played Live above.
The Great Divide
The Great Divide - 2026
Lead single - expect this as the opener or a signature moment every night
End of August
The Great Divide - 2026
Album opener - live debut at Pioneer Works. Opens with bug sounds.
Porch Light
The Great Divide - 2026
Second single. Fan singalong bait.
Haircut
The Great Divide - 2026
Critical standout - reviewers keep calling it the best track.
All Them Horses
The Great Divide - 2026
Called 'the best song Kahan has ever written' - expect this to be a centerpiece.
Dan
The Great Divide - 2026
Album closer. High chance of being the encore closer.
Stick Season
Stick Season - 2022
Encore staple. Crowd goes feral. Do not leave.
Northern Attitude
Stick Season - 2022
Homesick
Stick Season - 2022
Dial Drunk
Stick Season - 2022
Call Your Mom
Stick Season - 2022
She Calls Me Back
Stick Season - 2022
Doors
The Great Divide - 2026
Third single. Upbeat enough to work early in the set.
American Cars
The Great Divide - 2026
Performed at Tiny Desk - fans already know the words.
Paid Time Off
The Great Divide - 2026
Also performed at Tiny Desk.
Downfall
The Great Divide - 2026
Features Justin Vernon on record - may appear as a stadium moment.
We Go Way Back
The Great Divide - 2026
"Heaven is a drink in the backyard" - stripped-back crowd moment.
Deny Deny Deny
The Great Divide - 2026
Rock-leaning - should hit hard live.
Heatwave
Stick Season - 2022
Mess
Stick Season - 2022
Part of Me
Stick Season - 2022
Orange Juice
Stick Season - 2022
Everywhere, Everything
Stick Season - 2022
Staying Still
The Great Divide (Deluxe) - 2026
Bonus track. Boston shows may get this given the direct lyrical reference to the city.
23
The Great Divide - 2026
Devastating quiet track - may be rotated in mid-set.
Headed North
The Great Divide - 2026
Late tour stretch - Seattle, Vancouver may get this.
Dashboard
The Great Divide - 2026
Spoiled
The Great Divide - 2026
Godlight
Stick Season - 2022
Young Blood
Stick Season - 2022
Come Over
Stick Season - 2022
Still
Stick Season - 2022
Paul Revere
Stick Season - 2022
Anyway
Busyhead - 2019
Fan favorite
Telephones
Busyhead - 2019
Willing and Able
The Great Divide - 2026
Stripped with strings - possible acoustic moment.
Lighthouse
The Great Divide (Deluxe) - 2026
Bonus track - a surprise if it appears.
The View Between Villages
Stick Season - 2022
The song with 'the last of the bugs' line. If he plays this it's a moment.
Growing Sideways
Busyhead - 2019
Real treat if he plays it
False Confidence
Busyhead - 2019
Deep cut - huge crowd reaction
Carlo's Song
Busyhead - 2019
Memorializes his late friend Carlo - emotionally heavy. 'Dan' on the new album connects to this one.
Happy to Be Here
Busyhead - 2019
Bad Luck
Busyhead - 2019
Estimated from Pioneer Works preview show and early tour data. Rotates nightly.